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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Philadelphia Fed Survey and Daily Gold Change Correlation


  • In the past two years the Philadelphia Fed Survey announcement has caused no correlated activity in the price of Gold for that day.
  • On reporting, the %-age change for the rest of the day (10 am to 4 pm) correlates at a -38 % and the R² = 0.15.
  • The best correlations for all the data points in the last two years show that the consensus correlates well with the actual announcement at 92.9%.


At this time the Philadelphia Fed Survey does not appear to be a useful input tool for predicting daily gold price movement.

1 comment:

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